Poets Pulse Results: Song of Myself
“Mirror, mirror on the wall, who’s the fairest of them all?”
We have Discord and emoji reactions, but what do people really think about LostPoets, one of the largest NFT projects by unique wallets at nearly 9k? Can we quantify the sentiments of Pak collectors’ through simple statistics and uncover some shared beliefs? Are Pak collectors rich, crazy, both, or something else altogether?
These were some of the motivations behind the Poets Pulse survey of Lost Poets holders, conducted on Oct. 28 by @JonathanHerit and yours truly over the course of 24 hours, right before Pages could be fed into Poets to name and write poetry.
Interest was solid: a total of 352 people replied (4% of unique wallet) who collectively own 4.6k NFTs from the Lost Poets collection (7% of LP NFTs).
Never has anyone conducted such a large cross-sectional survey for an NFT project and if there is such as thing as the “best project” to do it on, it would be Lost Poets with the large distribution across wallets and interesting mechanisms.
Pak collectors are some of the smartest NFT collectors in the medium. So we weren’t surprised by the interest.
Below is a brief summary of my interpretation (and be sure to check out @JonathanHerit for his).
I. Respondent Demographics: almost all respondents owned ASH and/or Poets/Pages and about 50% of respondents owned Cubes NFTs:
(# Pak Collections means how many different collections respondents have participated in i.e. if someone selected ASH, Cubes, and Poets/Pages, that would be 3 Pak Collections. As a result, all respondents are uniquely categorized).
Respondents’ annual incomes were also about evenly represented across the three buckets and, not surprisingly, the higher the income the larger the size of the estimated NFT holdings.
II. Feeding Pages
If we multiply the average # of Pages fed per Poet by the # of Poets each respondent has, it equates to a total of 2.3k implied Pages consumed by the Poets of the 352 respondents.
Extrapolating, this would imply 32.8k Pages will be fed leaving about 3.5k Pages left unburned. This is a very crude estimate but it’s rather interesting.
II.2 Aside from feeding poets, what additional utility do you think Pages may gain as Lost Poets develops?
This was a fun open-ended question and here is the word cloud of the responses:
III. Burning Poets (and Pages)
Most of the respondents do not plan to burn more than 50% of the Poets they own, yet many are not sure.
The below shows predictions for how many Poets (blue bars) and Pages (green bars) will be burned: 8.4k Poets on average out of 27k Poets will be burned immediately when they are burnable for ASH (represented by the left blue vertical line). Respondents also believe that 22.3k Pages out of 38k will be eventually fed into Poets and thus burned (but not for ASH). The distribution of responses shows that it is bi-modal and
After 8.4k Poets are burned (on top of the 3.1k Cubes), about 380 ASH would be minted per high-tier burn, with each Poet minting on average 511 ASH. At the current ASH price of $30, that still represents on average about $15,000 with of ASH per Poet.
IV. $ASH Price on Oct. 31, 2022
Prediction: $200
Respondents appeared to be a little less bullish than Mexpex but more bullish than my previous ASH price estimate of $50 which was meant to be very conservative and for the end of 2021.
V. What will Pak do with the ASH received from the first ASH exclusive?
36% of respondents thought that Pak will fund liquidity on an exchange while people were evenly divided between Pak burning the ASH or simply holding it (11-12%). Some other uses people wrote in this open-ended question was rather interesting:
One respondent wrote that Pak would use ASH to “encourage more fomo” or “airdrop to more holders.” A DAO was mentioned a few times as well as distributing ASH (“redistribute”).
“Whatever he pleases. The art is the trust we place in him” was a particularly nice way to say it.
VI. Overall, the Lost Poets project has made us love Pak more:
It will be exciting to see how things change as Lost Poets reveals over the next ~330 days.
One thing is for sure, we will be watching more than Cubes burn: